How confident are you that you are making well informed decisions? Does your deepest well of confidence come grounded by your deepest knowledge or by your strongest opinions? Understanding this can make all of the difference in your outcomes.

Read on: blog.WednesdayWin.com​

Read time: 4 minutes

Beware of those areas where your confidence is the greatest. Our minds are geared to keep us alive against an array of ancient threats much more than to handle the full nuance of the modern world. Understand how these mechanisms work in ourselves (and others) to scale up the quality of your decisions. Let's explore:

1. Identity is essential

First, let's remember why our sense of self, our internal identity, is so important. Identity is what sets the parameters for our lives. We can't compete for long against the view we have of ourselves. If you see yourself as limited in knowledge, necessary experience, or capabilities, your outcomes will reflect that.

If instead you see yourself as a curious learner who is resourceful in clearing obstacles, you'll act in accordance with those principles. See the world as a rich set of opportunities and you won't get bogged down in resentment or negative comparisons with others.

We have to have a positive view of our ability to face challenges and work through to solutions and positive resolutions. We must embrace the reality that we will falter at times, but that's not the final word on our abilities.

• Be kind to yourself first
• Acknowledge that learning is more valuable than knowledge because we can always pursue more
• Be firm in goals, but flexible in methods and pathways
• Identity is essential, but it must be grounded correctly to help us to positive personal outcomes

2. Build on the right foundation

This is where identity can lead us wrong: embracing an identity based on opinions instead of one based on values.

Adam Grant explains this well in Think Again. Identities based on opinions lead to inflexible thinking, defense of whatever idea is necessary to support the opinion or groupthink requirements no matter how inconsistent, and short-term strategies. This is especially obvious in politics. Look how the policies of the major parties dance around to try to align to their leaders' whims. Behavior derided and criticized in one moment is suddenly excused with elaborate explanations in the next simply due to who's the actor. Principles are whipsawed to meet the moment.

Identities based on values or ideals instead guide us to focus on long-term goals, be open to learning new methods and strategies, and to regularly question our preferences and seek better approaches to deliver optimal outcomes. We're still apt to fool ourselves at times, but recognizing that we don't have a monopoly on knowledge just a commitment to high quality results.

• Start with values and fundamental principles
• Avoid opinion-based identity and cult of personality leaders
• Build a long-term vision for yourself that can withstand the crashing waves of the moment
• Imagine a moment far in the future and see the journey you've taken having stood up for your core principles

3. Knowns and unknowns

One of the deep paradoxes of human minds is our tendency to most confident about those areas in our life where we are most inadequately informed. The now famous Dunning-Kruger Effect shows that we generally become less certain about our opinions as we learn more relevant facts about the subject rather than more.

The key to being a better thinker is to head off D-K by being flexible thinkers from the start. Be especially wary of your own ideas in areas where you feel you must be correct and have all relevant information. This doesn't mean never commit to an idea or a course of action, of course, but be more mindful when making hard-to-reverse decisions.

Consider Bastiat's admonition: and then what might happen? Think more deeply. Consider you are likely incorrect in some aspect of your thought (because of an unconscious desire to tip the scales to a particular action).

• Be wary of where your confidence is greatest
• Be open to new data and always assume there is more that could be learned
• There's greater risks in irreversible decisions so seek more data and insights in accordance with that risk
• Look beyond first order impacts of your planned course of action and consider opportunity costs as well

4. Think better: decide better

Grant describes two kinds of organizational disagreements: personal conflict and task conflict. Personal conflict is destructive and unhelpful. It arrises from personality differences, power differentials, and other aspects of work politics and positioning. Leaders need to work to minimize this kind of destructive activity.

Task conflict, however, is a sign of a healthy organization. When participants feel comfortable both to challenge and be challenged on the relative merits of a given strategy or action plan, ideas and information are aired and considered. Leaders who can encourage task conflict and the debate it engenders can massively scale up the effectiveness of their teams. Encourage more data and idea evaluation. Find ways to drive all of your team to share meaningful ideas without the risk of being criticized for participating. Debate contributions and not contributors.

Amazon embodies this idea in one of the 16 Leadership Principles: Disagree and Commit: be comfortable raising alternative ideas and have a healthy debate. Once decisions are made, though, fully commit to executing on the plan to its fullest.

• Avoid personality conflict
• Encourage task conflict
• Debate is healthy and should be encouraged to expose as many relevant data as possible
• Once a decision is made, pursue success with that approach fully

5. A note about courage

Many shy away from conflict over ideas because it feels too personal. If our identity is based on our opinions, attacks on those opinions feel like an assault on our core sense of self.

If instead, we recognize that it's a positive to have our ideas challenged with alternatives because we are seeking the highest, strongest expression of our shared values and goals, we can find peace in the progress. It can still feel like a challenge to our ego in the moment, but it's a long-term good that's easy to embrace with practice.

What it requires is courage. Courage that our ideals are strong enough to be challenged. Courage that we can still have more to learn. Courage that we might have to pay a price to continue to stand for those ideals. But courage has a funny character: to have more, we must use more. Courage builds by exercising the courage we already have. Make small moves to be able to make bigger ones in the future.

• Be comfortable in having ideas tested as that's the only way our knowledge can increase
• Be willing to defend ideas, but without dismissing counter-evidence
• We must exercise our courage in order to build more

Action Summary

Be a better thinker by recognizing the dangerous lure of great confidence. Recognize that there's always more to learn and that counter evidence may just change your mind (and that's a good thing).

Embrace an identity based on values and not opinions or a group demanding loyalty. Build the courage to test your ideas by using that courage you already can muster.

• Embrace a positive identity
• Ground your sense of self in timeless ideals
• Recognize there's always more data that might change your mind
• Embrace task conflict and minimize personality conflict
• Grow your courage to stand behind your ideals

​

What do you think? How do you remain open to new ideas without breaking from what really matters? Reply to this email and let me know.

​

To your success,

Christopher

​

P.S. Like this one? You'll probably want to check out this earlier Wednesday Win essay on how to set the right priority for your team, too.

​

---

Looking for a deeper dive on these topics? Connect here and reach out:

1. Connect and follow on Twitter/X: @cbell​
2. Connect and follow on LinkedIn: @cbell​

Like this newsletter? Please share the sign-up link with others. Thank you.

​

​

​